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ORCID iD

Bernard L. Simonin: 0009-0008-0515-8815

Article Type

Research Article

Abstract

Decision-makers and researchers continue to ponder on how to cope with today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environments (VUCA). The catch-all expression “it is a VUCA world” has gained popularity while raising some concerns on its applicability. To date, much of the focus has been in association with large-scale events of a negative nature; research has remained mostly conceptual with almost no extensive empirical investigation centered on the fully unpacked VUCA construct. This study examines the interplay between VUCA elements, turbulence, and disruption; it introduces a turbulence diagnostic tool for leadership and explores patterns of variability across types of triggering events and business contexts. The study relies on a mixed-method approach incorporating qualitative and quantitative analyses of data drawn from over 275 experienced leaders and managers operating in multiple sectors. Findings indicate that all focal variables of VUCA, turbulence, and disruption are closely interrelated; external (compared to internal) events tend to have greater influence; about 10% of accounted situations can be traced to positive circumstances; with respect to job location, volatility was lower for those posted in the U.S. in comparison to outside the U.S.; and regarding global mobility, U.S. expatriates reported greater turbulence overseas than at home while non-U.S. expatriates faced greater complexity overseas than at home. For leadership development, the findings highlight the importance of sense-making, emotional intelligence and empathy, flexibility, focus, proper communication, and preparedness.

Keywords

VUCA, Turbulence, Disruption, Leadership, Global Mobility

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